We must always remember times past. The news this week that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is exiting the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should remind us of the contentious statement made by Chief Obafemi Awolowo in 1978. During the presidential election campaign, Awolowo proposed that Nigeria should reconsider its membership of OPEC.
It kicked up a firestorm as opposed to what ought to have been a very serious debate. Absurdly, some people began to see it as having a religious imputation, which is as ridiculous as it can get. Without a vigorous debate on Chief Awolowo’s position, an opportunity to lay a roadmap for the future was lost. This is characteristic of what Nigeria has become. Now that the UAE has made it clear that it is exiting OPEC on the 1st of May 2026, the opportunists are not imputing religious motives; they would look pretty daft if they did.
The UAE, which has been a member of OPEC since 1967, took its decision based on national interests driven by economic calculations. This is how a sovereign state should behave. The decision of the UAE will reverberate across continents for decades to come.
Having postponed rigorous analysis of its participation in OPEC, Nigeria must now work out a response to this new development. We must make econometric projections regarding what the effects will be on our oil industry, future investment in the oil sector, our balance of payments position, as well as our overall fiscal landscape.
The discourse must be vigorous, no-holds-barred, and data-driven. It could even affect our overall national planning and economic strategy. The analysis must start immediately.