By Romanus Ugwu
The narratives circulating ahead of next year’s presidential election have suggested that it would be difficult for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to garner the required percentage of votes in the North West geopolitical zone. His detractors have hinged their convictions on claims that the Federal Government has performed woefully and failed to actualise his campaign promises to the people of the zone and beyond.
His political adversaries have constantly referenced escalating insecurity, exemplified by resurgent bandit attacks and the killing of innocent Nigerians, alongside the spiralling pangs of hunger, destitution and hopelessness ravaging the northern region, as grounds for threatening to vote against him in next year’s poll.
Their concerns are not without basis. Bandits, kidnappers and insurgents continue to sack villages, demand millions of naira in ransom and perpetrate violence against communities across the region. Critics argue that for all the infrastructural announcements, the fundamental problem of physical safety remains inadequately addressed.
Against this backdrop, the Governor Hope Uzodimma-led Renewed Hope Ambassadors embarked on an inspection tour of federal and state projects in Kaduna, Kano and Jigawa, presenting what they described as incontrovertible evidence to counter the negative impressions. However, independent observers have noted that project announcements and percentage completions, while real, do not yet fully address the scale of deprivation affecting ordinary communities across the zone.
Governor Uba Sani was among the most vocal in championing the President’s record, highlighting the approval of a light rail project for Kaduna valued at approximately one trillion naira and N178 billion for the construction of the Mandu-Birnin Gwari road, abandoned for more than two decades. The Kaduna-Kano railway, intended to connect Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina and Maradi in Niger Republic across 203 kilometres, has reached over 65 per cent completion.
“President Tinubu has done more for the North than any leader in the history of Nigeria,” Governor Sani said, also noting improved security along the Kaduna to Birnin Gwari corridor. “Today, you can go to Birnin Gwari even at night without a police escort,” he added.
However, banditry and kidnapping continue to afflict several parts of Kaduna State, with recent months recording attacks on farming communities and rural settlements. Displacement remains a live issue for tens of thousands of northerners whose villages have been sacked. The construction of roads, however laudable, has not translated into comprehensive security for residents who live along those corridors.
Resident Engineer Ali Bukar confirmed that the Kano-Jigawa-Katsina-Maradi railway had reached 60 per cent completion, with December 2027 given as the expected delivery date. What the tour did not address is what happens to communities displaced by years of insecurity while these long-term projects are being completed.
In Kano, the governor’s administration declared a state of emergency in the education sector, allocating 29.75 per cent of the 2024 budget to education, rising to 31.5 per cent in 2025. In 2026, over N430 billion, representing 30 per cent of a record N1.4 trillion budget, was set aside for the sector. More than 18,000 teachers were recruited, over 4.9 million pupils enrolled in public schools, and N4.4 billion allocated to sponsor more than 183,000 students for external examinations.
Commissioner for Education Dr Ali Haruna Makoda attributed a visible reduction in the number of Almajiris and street beggars to these reforms, a claim echoed by some residents during the tour.
Yet the structural conditions that produced the Almajiri phenomenon, including mass unemployment, inadequate household income and the absence of integrated social safety nets, have not been dismantled. The increase in federal allocations to states, which the presidential team credits for enabling much of this state-level spending, has also attracted scrutiny. Critics point out that the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the foreign exchange rate, while generating more revenue for distribution, have simultaneously increased the cost of living dramatically. The states are receiving more money; the people, in many cases, are buying less with theirs.
Jigawa offered perhaps the most visible evidence of integrated human capital investment. The Renewed Hope Technical Services centre and the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Multi-Purpose Skills Acquisition Centre in Dutse offer training in fourteen trades, including welding, carpentry, ICT, fisheries and hotel management. At least 300 young Nigerians have been trained, with a target of 1,500 graduates across eight centres.
The state government also procured over 300 new tractors, 80 boom sprayers, 60 combined harvesters and 150 rice and maize seeders, establishing 60 service centres across 30 political constituencies. Thirty technicians were trained in China, with 360 operators also trained to manage the equipment. All have been given permanent and pensionable appointments.
These are coherent programmes. The concern raised by agricultural development experts, however, is sustainability. Nigeria has a history of mechanisation drives that produced impressive initial figures before stalling due to poor maintenance culture and bureaucratic decay.
Special Adviser Sunday Dare described the projects as real and forward-looking. “Seeing is believing,” he said, pointing to projects abandoned for decades that are now back on track. His summation is not unfair. There is genuine and measurable construction activity across all three states. The railway, if completed on schedule and managed competently, is transformative. The educational investments in Kano are substantial. The Jigawa programmes reflect coherent long-term economic thinking.
At the same time, a balanced reading demands acknowledgement of what the tour did not show. Insecurity remains the dominant reality for millions of North West residents. Food prices have risen sharply.
Unemployment among young people remains severe, and the benefits of increased federal allocations have not yet filtered through to the household level in ways that are broadly felt.
Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga summed up the purpose of the exercise candidly: “If you don’t blow your trumpet by yourself, nobody will do it for you.” The administration is aware that its record is disputed and that the dispute matters ahead of 2027.
What the evidence suggests is that the President has a record to defend in the North West, and it is a genuinely mixed one. There are real projects and there is real suffering. The election will likely be decided by which of these two realities weighs more heavily in the minds of voters who must live with both.
