Why China may benefit from the UAE’s Opec withdrawal amid Iran war oil crisis

China may gain from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdrawing from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), benefiting from additional supply as global oil markets face growing strain three months into the US-Israeli war in Iran, analysts said.

The UAE – Opec’s third-largest producer, accounting for about 12 per cent of its total output – will formally leave the bloc on May 1. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told CNBC that it was the “right time” to exit, adding that supply shortfalls demanded more flexibility than Opec’s collective decision-making allowed.

For major importers such as China, that added flexibility could boost supply and push prices down.

“For a buyer, any potential supply increase is positive as it means pressure on prices. I would expect China to increase purchases from the UAE,” said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, a trade and logistics consultancy.

Xu said the UAE’s exit could deepen energy ties between the two countries. In 2025, China imported 692,000 barrels per day from the UAE, out of total daily exports of 3.17 million barrels, accounting for 6 per cent of China’s seaborne imports, according to Kpler.

Other analysts agreed that additional supply could become more readily available beyond the constraints imposed by Opec.

“With the UAE being more flexible to increase production, China may be able to tap the former’s oil quickly if they are in favour of buying in the spot market,” said June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities.

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